Behind murky claim of a new hypersonic missile test, there lies a very real arms race
Enlarge this image
China’s DF-17 missile is a medium-range hypersonic weapon capable of travelling over five times the speed of sound.
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
hide caption
toggle caption
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Enlarge this image
The U.S. Navy regularly patrols the western Pacific Ocean. Some worry that it is vulnerable to attack from China’s hypersonic missiles.
Navy Media Content Services
hide caption
toggle caption
Navy Media Content Services
The U.S. Navy regularly patrols the western Pacific Ocean. Some worry that it is vulnerable to attack from China’s hypersonic missiles.
Navy Media Content Services
Zhao says in the big picture, Chinese leadership wants to protect itself from what it sees as growing U.S. aggression: «China feels it needs a greater overall military power, including a stronger nuclear power, to basically ensure that the U.S. wouldn’t be able to interfere with Chinese internal matters.»
An emerging arms race
But not everyone agrees that China’s build-up of hypersonic weapons is defensive. Michael Griffin, a former undersecretary of defense for research and engineering who is now co-president of LogiQ Inc., says China’s hypersonic arsenal allows it to expand its influence in the region.
«One can target air fields and aircraft carriers, within fifteen or twenty minutes of flight time, literally thousands of kilometers away from the Chinese mainland,» he says. Griffin adds that the new intercontinental hypersonic missile could take that capability a step further. With or without a nuclear warhead, such weapons could potentially strike U.S. ships anywhere on earth. «That is a really big deal,» he says.
Even the existing shorter-range weapons puts the U.S., which is trying to expand its military presence in the western Pacific, and its allies at risk, he argues. Griffin says that the U.S. needs to develop and stockpile hypersonic missiles of its own, to counter the Chinese threat. «I’m not one to mince words, it is an arms race,» Griffin says. «And critically, we didn’t start it.»
But Acton questions whether the current race for hypersonic weapons makes sense. China already has a sizable medium-range ballistic missile force which is very capable, he notes. China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles are already more than capable of overwhelming U.S. defenses, and its ICBM force is growing. «I don’t think this is carefully driven by rational strategic factors,» says Acton. «I think a lot of this is driven by keeping up with the neighbors.»
Jeffrey Lewis says any race is supposed to have a finish line. This arms race is more like the two sides are on treadmills. «The only victory is to be first off the treadmill,» he says. «So what we need to do is to find a way to exit the arms race, rather than accelerate it.»
One way, he believes, is for the U.S. to be more open to limits on missile defenses, which are driving the hypersonic craze. «Over the long term I think we have to think about what kind of arms control we want with Russia and China,» he says.
If the latest reports of this nuclear-capable long range Chinese weapon are true, the race seems to be speeding up for now. And the Pentagon is doing what it can to keep pace. Last month, it successfully tested its own advanced hypersonic design.
For Acton, the growing tensions and lack of dialogue between the U.S. and China are far more concerning than whether China has developed a new weapon: «I’m frankly indifferent as to whether the nuclear warhead that fries me is carried by a ballistic missile or by a glider.»
Обсудим?
Смотрите также:
